This page demonstrates MarginHaul's eMobility methodology applied to real-world fleet data patterns — not a past paid client engagement. It illustrates how we approach EV transition planning, TCO modeling, and CARB compliance strategy. We never share actual client data, names, or results without explicit written permission. Your engagement with us is confidential by default.
Start with what the fleet actually does every day.
An EV transition is a route-design and infrastructure-sequencing problem disguised as a vehicle-purchase problem. Before a single spec sheet is opened, we ingest 12 months of telematics, fuel-card, maintenance, and dispatch data to build a vehicle-level profile of the fleet as it runs today.
| Input | What we extract |
|---|---|
| Telematics (GPS, odometer) | Daily mileage distribution per vehicle, stem time, dwell, utilization |
| Fuel card records | Gallons consumed, MPG by duty cycle, fuel cost per mile |
| Maintenance logs | Cost per mile trend, replacement cycle, repair frequency by VIN |
| Dispatch / TMS | Route composition, return-to-base patterns, shift overlap |
| Vehicle registry | Model year, GVWR class, CARB useful-life expiration dates |
Every vehicle has a duty cycle fingerprint. The fingerprint — not the fleet average — is what determines whether a BEV swap makes sense. Fleets that skip this step overbuy on range and underbuy on chargers.
Map every route against real BEV range.
We overlay 12 months of daily route profiles against current BEV range capability at realistic duty-cycle derating (grade, ambient temperature, HVAC load, payload). Each vehicle lands in one of three tiers.
| Tier | Daily mileage profile | Feasibility |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 | Under 120 mi/day, return-to-base | Immediate BEV candidate — Phase 1 |
| Tier 2 | 120–200 mi/day, predictable midday dwell | Feasible with opportunity charging — Phase 2 |
| Tier 3 | Over 200 mi/day, irregular dwell | Hold as ICE; reassess for FCEV or next-gen BEV — Phase 3 |
Tier assignments are not fixed. In modeled fleet profiles, modeling shows 5–15% of vehicles can be shifted between tiers by restructuring routes — concentrating short-haul legs onto the vehicles slated for electrification without changing total freight volume.
Decompose the 5-year cost, line by line.
The TCO waterfall shows how each cost lever moves the 5-year total cost of ownership from a diesel baseline to a phased-EV endpoint. Values below are illustrative, based on a representative Class 6 return-to-base vehicle transitioning under our methodology.
Model your own fleet's TCO. Try our interactive EV TCO calculator →
Try the EV TCO CalculatorStress-test the plan before we commit.
A TCO model with a single number is a guess. We run a tornado analysis that shifts each input ±20% around base case to see which variables actually move the answer — and by how much.
Diesel price and utility rate dominate the NPV. Incentive capture is the third-largest lever — and the only one we can meaningfully control in Year 1. That's why our phased plan always front-loads incentive applications.
The case to act now is economic, not compliance-driven.
Federal 30C charging credits expire June 30, 2026. A 10-port depot install can capture up to $1M in 30C credits if executed before the deadline.
CA HVIP is depleting — the latest Class 8 voucher round closed in under 90 days, with $1B+ cumulative redemption.
Federal 45W remains active through 2032 across Class 4-8. State stacks (NY-TIP, NJ ZIP, CO/MA/WA/OR programs) layer on differently per geography.
The regulatory pendulum can swing back. TCO-Lens models multiple regulatory scenarios — but the binding deadlines today are economic, not compliance-driven.
TCO-Lens builds a VIN-level transition calendar that shows, by month, when each vehicle should transition based on incentive timing, useful-life economics, and route-feasibility windows.
Buy too early and overpay for immature technology. Wait too long and miss the 30C credit deadline or the HVIP voucher window. The methodology’s job is to find the narrow window where incentive capture, vehicle cost curve, and route feasibility intersect.
Stack every dollar the program will allow.
A well-sequenced incentive stack can offset 30–50% of Phase 1 vehicle and infrastructure cost. The challenge is timing: funding windows close without notice, and some programs prohibit stacking. We prepare applications in parallel so the fleet captures the full stack before the funding pool exhausts.
Three phases, thirty-six months.
A phased rollout spreads capital, protects operations against early-technology risk, and keeps the fleet inside CARB compliance at every milestone. Each phase has a stop-go review: if Phase 1 data doesn't match the model, Phase 2 is re-planned before commitments are made.
Build the infrastructure the phases actually need.
The most common failure mode we see is building full-fleet DC fast charging on day one — a capital sink that sits at 20% utilization for three years. The methodology sizes charging to the phase, not the endgame.
We model the depot's existing electrical capacity against the phased load profile — panel, transformer, service entrance — and coordinate utility make-ready applications so infrastructure is energized on the same week vehicles arrive.
What you get in 30 days.
Every eMobility engagement ends with a defensible, executable package — not a slide deck.
From scoping call to signed engagement in one week.
Every engagement starts with a free 30-minute scoping call. We'll review your fleet size, geography, and compliance exposure, and confirm whether the 30-day methodology is the right fit — or whether you need a narrower diagnostic first. No slide deck, no sales theater.
Ready to scope your EV transition?
Free 30-minute scoping call for commercial fleets of all sizes. Findings Promise: if our Phase 1 diagnostic doesn't surface enough value to substantiate Phase 2, we tell you not to engage Phase 2.
Request a Scoping Call