A preview of the eMobility analysis the methodology produces — applied to your fleet's transition decision

The three numbers that actually predict eMobility ROI

"Should we go electric?" is the wrong question. The methodology tracks three numbers that answer the right one — which segments, when, and for how much — before any capital is committed.

Electrification readiness is the share of fleet segments where TCO crossover is achieved within five years. It reframes the decision from a single yes/no into a sequenced plan: which duty cycles are economic now, which are close, and which are not.

HVIP capture potential is the dollar value of California voucher funding identified across electrifiable segments. It is California-only, but it defines the economic ceiling for Phase 1 and the urgency of the capture timeline.

5-year TCO delta is the modeled savings against continuing the status-quo diesel fleet — the bottom-line number that justifies the capital allocation to the board.

Why "just buy electric trucks" is the wrong framing

Treating the fleet as one decision ignores that different duty cycles have different economics. The matrix above scores every vehicle-class × duty-cycle segment against a five-year TCO horizon.

Class 8 drayage in California is TCO-positive today — HVIP plus reduced operating cost beats diesel within roughly 18 months. Class 6 regional crosses over in two to three years as battery prices decline: pilot now, scale later. Class 8 long-haul stays diesel-dominant beyond the five-year horizon — forcing the transition there destroys value.

The methodology turns this into a phased plan: capture the easy wins first, pilot the near-term segments, and defer the hard ones until the economics actually arrive.

HVIP capture is a multi-year discipline, not a one-time event

HVIP vouchers are subject to annual caps — 30 standard or 50 for drayage, refuse, and transit, per fleet per year. The timeline panel is the most operationally actionable part of the dashboard: it sequences capture against those caps and your operational readiness.

A fleet eligible for $7.65M in HVIP funding can only realize about $2.55M in any single year. Pretending the full amount is available up front produces a plan that collapses on contact with the program rules.

Year 1 prioritizes the highest-confidence segments to lock in early voucher capture. Years 2–3 sequence the remaining segments by TCO trajectory and the operational learning that Phase 1 produces — so deployment never outruns charging, duty-cycle validation, or driver readiness.